Comparison of Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis Forecasting Methods on Art Board Production Demand (Case Study of PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Paper Mills 1)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25124/jrsi.v8i02.500Keywords:
Production forecasting, moving average, single exponential smoothing, trend analysisAbstract
One of the companies engaged in the manufacturing industry is PT Pindo Deli Pulp and Mills 1, which
produces various kinds of paper and tissue. Art Board is a type of paper produced by PT Pindo Deli Pulp
and Mills 1, and is quite attractive to customers. However, customer demand for Art Board products often
fluctuates. Product demand is an important aspect to be evaluated, because if the company does not plan
properly the company will experience financial losses. Forecasting can be used as a support for company
decision making. Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis are the methods
used to support forecasting in this study, where the next step is to analyze the accuracy of the forecasting
method with the parameter values of MAD, MSE, standard error, bias, and forecasting for the next period.
Based on data collection and analysis, it is found that the period 1 moving average method is the best
method for forecasting production demand for Art Board products with forecasting for the next period of
19410 units, MAD of 3186,182, MSE of 16001250, and a bias of 634,546 meanwhile the standard error is
4422,339.